In the commodities asset class in March 2026, crude oil, oil products, refining spreads, ethanol, Rotterdam coal, world sugar, and cocoa futures posted double-digit percentage gains, while the four precious metals trading on the CME’s COMEX and NYMEX divisions suffered double-digit percentage declines. The leading stock market indices and bonds were lower, while the dollar index rallied 2.57%.
Energy commodities soar
The military conflict in the Middle East, which escalated into a regional crisis after Iran retaliated against neighboring countries and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical logistical chokepoint for crude oil, oil products, fertilizers, and other commodities, led to a surge in energy prices.
The monthly May NYMEX WTI crude oil futures chart shows that the price rose to $119.48 per barrel on March 9, and was 51.56% higher in March. Brent crude oil posted a 43.69% monthly gain.
Gasoline moved 39.73% higher, while heating oil futures, which are a proxy for other distillate fuels, rallied 62.51%. The heating oil futures outperformed gasoline amid supply fears for Brent crude oil, the benchmark for Middle Eastern crude oil, as Brent’s higher sulfur content than WTI crude oil is refined into distillate oil products.
Crack spreads reflect the refining margins for processing crude oil into gasoline and distillate products. The gasoline crack spread moved 11.01% higher in March, while the distillate crack spread posted an 83.53% gain.
Ethanol, the biofuel additive to U.S. gasoline, rose 12.12% for the month, while coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, rose 16.17% in March. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas prices edged up only 0.10%, as the high-demand season is ending and U.S. natural gas inventories will increase over the coming weeks and months. Natural gas is entering the shoulder season, where heating and cooling demand is low, which tends to weigh on prices. However, events in the Middle East led to gains in European natural gas prices. U.K. natural gas futures prices rose 63% in March, while natural gas futures prices in the Netherlands increased by 58.8% for the month.
Precious metals become less precious
Precious metal prices soared in 2025 and early 2026, but they ran out of upside steam in late January.
Gold, the leading precious metal, fell 11.52% in March, the best performance among the four metals. The volatile silver futures market led on the downside with a 19.69% decline. NYMEX palladium futures fell 18.65%, while NYMEX platinum futures moved 17.99% lower.
Copper, the leading nonferrous metal, experienced a 7.35% decline in the nearby futures contract, while most base metals followed copper lower.
Grains and softs were mostly higher, lumber rallied, cattle were higher, while hogs fell
As the planting season in the Northern Hemisphere gets underway, grain and oilseed markets face the risk of a fertilizer shortage, as the Strait of Hormuz is a logistical chokepoint for this critical agricultural input. Soybean futures prices edged only 0.02% higher, while corn futures rallied 2.06%, and CBOT soft red winter wheat futures moved 4.18% higher. Since Russia and Ukraine are major wheat producers, the ongoing war has driven up wheat prices.
As the U.S. construction season gets underway in spring, physical lumber futures move 4.55% higher in March.
With the 2026 peak grilling season only two months away, live and feeder cattle futures rose 6.16% and 5.55%, respectively, in March. Meanwhile, the lean hog futures fell 4.11% for the month.
Soft commodities posted across-the-board gains, with cocoa and world sugar futures moving 14.27% and 11.74% higher, respectively. Cotton, which had been a laggard, posted a 6.69% monthly gain, while Arabica coffee futures rallied 6.27%. The volatile FCOJ futures moved 4.68% higher in March.
Spotlight on energy- The bullish and bearish cases for oil and oil products
Energy commodities were the focal point in March, as markets across all assets followed the oil market, which remained in the crosshairs of the Middle East conflict.
Any escalation in April could send crude oil prices soaring, which would be the bullish case for the energy sector. However, an end to the hostilities or a clear victory over the theocracy could send prices substantially lower. The bottom line is that markets will continue to monitor crude oil prices over the coming days and weeks.
Factors to watch in April 2026- The news cycle will move markets
As commodities move into April, they enter spring. Seasonality favors some strength in grains, meats, and gasoline, and weakness in natural gas as the shoulder and U.S. inventory injection season begins. Expect volatility in gasoline prices during the driving season, but the Middle East will dictate the path of least resistance for prices. The 2026 grilling season is only two months away, which will likely support beef and pork prices. The situation in the Middle East remains the most significant factor for crude oil and oil product prices over the coming days and weeks.
Keep a close eye on those metals, as gold, silver, and copper remain in long-term bullish trends and are showing signs of a bottom. The continued decline in fiat currencies’ purchasing power remains a factor supporting metals.
The bull market in stocks has hit a roadblock, and the economic and geopolitical landscapes will determine if a rebound is on the horizon. Stocks rallied sharply on March 31. Time will tell if the rally was window dressing or the start of a V-shaped recovery. The odds continue to favor a lower Fed Funds Rate under Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chairman, replacing Jerome Powell. However, high oil prices could increase inflationary pressures, derailing rate cuts over the coming months.
Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in April 2026 and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
