What Happened?
Shares of private equity firm Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG) jumped 5.9% in the morning session after the comapny announced new three-year financial targets and a $2 billion share repurchase program during its 2026 Shareholder Update. The company outlined its growth plan, setting goals to be achieved by the end of 2028. These targets included Fee Related Earnings of at least $1.9 billion and inflows of over $200 billion. Carlyle also aimed for Distributable Earnings per common share of more than $6.00. In addition to the growth targets, the company's Board approved the new $2 billion buyback program. This plan provided Carlyle with the flexibility to return capital to its shareholders and was intended to boost market confidence.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $52.50, up 1.8% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Carlyle’s shares are quite volatile and have had 18 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 4 months ago when the stock dropped 5.7% on the news that the company reported third-quarter financial results where revenue fell significantly short of analysts' expectations, alongside a slight miss on fee-related earnings. The global investment firm generated revenue of $782.5 million, a 12.6% decline from the previous year and a 20.7% miss against Wall Street's forecast of $987.3 million. Additionally, fee-related earnings, a key measure of recurring profitability for asset managers, came in at $311.9 million, narrowly missing estimates. The results were not all negative, as the firm's Assets Under Management (AUM) grew 5.9% year-over-year to $474 billion, beating expectations by 6%. However, investors appeared to focus on the significant revenue shortfall, which drove the negative sentiment around the stock.
Carlyle is down 13.7% since the beginning of the year, and at $52.50 per share, it is trading 24.3% below its 52-week high of $69.35 from September 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Carlyle’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,533.
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