It has been a rough start to 2026 for tech investors. Shares of seven of the eight trillion-dollar tech companies are in the red year-to-date (YTD).
The lone holdout is Nvidia (NVDA). The chipmaker is up about 5% in 2026, even as the Nasdaq has dropped more than 1.5%. That outperformance says a lot. But it also raises the stakes for what comes next.
On Wednesday, Nvidia reports quarterly earnings, and what CEO Jensen Huang shares about the road ahead could either calm investor nerves or rattle markets further.
NVIDIA Earnings and the AI Trade
NVIDIA now generates roughly 90% of its revenue from its data center business, the division that supplies the graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI systems used to train and run most large language models. As the world's biggest tech companies build AI infrastructure, they're largely buying Nvidia's chips to do it.
Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) are expected to spend nearly $700 billion combined on AI infrastructure this year, according to their latest forecasts and analyst estimates. That's a projected increase of more than 60% from the already historic levels of 2025, according to CNBC.
The increase in capital expenditures is a massive tailwind for Nvidia. But it's also created enormous expectations and anxiety about consequences if spending slows. Truist analyst William Stein bluntly framed the fear. Some investors worry about "the collapse of everything AI related," including capital expenditure and AI infrastructure supplier revenue. Stein pushed back on that view, noting that optical, memory, and semiconductor capital equipment stocks have all been running hot, a sign that AI demand remains intact.
Truist maintained its Buy rating on Nvidia with a $275 price target, saying it expects fourth-quarter results and first-quarter guidance to exceed Wall Street consensus.
What Analysts Expect From Nvidia's Quarterly Results
The numbers Wall Street is watching are significant.
According to Yahoo Finance data, analysts on average expect Nvidia to report revenue of $66.23 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, a 68% increase from the same period a year ago, when sales came in at $39.33 billion.
- For the April quarter, the average estimate is $71.79 billion, representing year-over-year (YOY) growth of about 63%.
- On the earnings side, analysts project normalized earnings per share of $1.54 for the current quarter, rising to $1.68 in the next quarter.
- For the full year 2026, the consensus stands at $4.70 in earnings per share, and Wall Street sees that climbing to $7.86 in 2027.
Truist's Stein noted that despite Nvidia's market dominance and projected mid-50% EPS growth, the stock currently trades at just 19 times 2027 earnings estimates, which is reasonable.
Wedbush analysts, who also have a “Buy” rating with a $230 price target, wrote in a note previewing the results that hyperscale capital expenditure forecasts for 2026 have already exceeded prior expectations. They expect AI investment growth to "somewhat exceed overall capex trends," according to a CNBC report.
The Groq Deal and Vera Rubin: 2 Big Topics Investors Are Watching
Beyond the headline numbers, two storylines will dominate Wednesday's call. The first is Nvidia's acquisition of Groq's assets in late December for roughly $20 billion.
Groq specializes in AI inference, the process of using a trained model to make real-time decisions. It's a fast-growing segment where rivals building custom AI chips, known as ASICs, have been gaining ground. Wedbush analysts said a strong roadmap tied to the Groq deal "could meaningfully allay investor concerns" about competition from custom chip makers.
The second topic is Vera Rubin, Nvidia's next-generation rack-scale AI system. Huang said in October that six million Blackwell GPUs had shipped over the past four quarters and that he expects $500 billion in combined GPU sales across the Blackwell and Rubin generations. Investors will be listening closely for any updates on Vera Rubin's rollout timeline.
Meta signed a sweeping deal in February to deploy millions of Nvidia chips, including next-generation Vera Rubin systems, according to a company statement. That deal, described by chip analyst Ben Bajarin of Creative Strategies as "certainly in the tens of billions of dollars," is a reminder of the enormous amount at stake in Nvidia's execution.
Wednesday won't just be an earnings report. For many investors, it's a referendum on the entire AI trade.
What is the NVDA Stock Price Target?
Analysts tracking NVDA stock forecast adjusted earnings to expand from $2.99 per share in fiscal 2025 to $12.54 per share in fiscal 2030. If the tech behemoth is priced at 25x earnings, it could gain over 60% in the next three years.
Out of the 50 analysts covering NVDA stock, 44 recommend “Strong Buy”, three recommend “Moderate Buy”, two recommend “Hold”, and one recommends “Strong Sell”. The average Nvidia stock price target is $255.55, above the current price of $196.08. And with a Street high target of $352, NVDA could rise 79.5% from here.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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