What Happened?
A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after seasonal-shopping data pointed to continued consumer demand heading into the holiday period. The National Retail Federation’s annual survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, projects U.S. Halloween spending of $13.5 billion this year, following last year’s record level. Circana’s retail tracking data also showed late-season back-to-school sales rose 4.2% year over year in the week ended September 5. Together, the data suggests that shoppers are still allocating spending toward seasonal and discretionary categories, even as they remain value conscious. That is constructive for retailers exposed to apparel, footwear, home goods, automotive parts, sporting goods, and off-price merchandise, as investors look ahead to the more important fourth-quarter selling season.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
- Home Furniture Retailer company Arhaus (NASDAQ: ARHS) jumped 5.4%. Is now the time to buy Arhaus? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Beauty and Cosmetics Retailer company Sally Beauty (NYSE: SBH) jumped 3.6%. Is now the time to buy Sally Beauty? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Discount Grocery Store company Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) jumped 3.3%. Is now the time to buy Dollar Tree? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Zooming In On Arhaus (ARHS)
Arhaus’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 32 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 1 day ago when the stock gained 11.9% on the news that Jefferies upgraded the company to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $10 from $9.50. Jefferies analyst Jonathan Matuszewski wrote in a note to clients that he has “newfound optimism on the retailer’s strategy to elevate brand awareness via broadened catalog circulation & digital marketing,” according to CNBC. The firm said Arhaus website traffic has more than doubled year over year over the past four weeks. Matuszewski sees a possible 75 to 200 basis-point comparable-sales lift in 2027 if the expanded semi-annual catalog converts even modestly, and a 150 to 200 basis-point annual comp tailwind from an early business-to-business push that he called incremental to Street estimates. The $10 target implied about 28% upside from the previous session’s close, CNBC reported. Shares are still down nearly 31% year to date as shoppers pulled back. The upgrade is a minority view: eight of 15 analysts covering the stock have a hold, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. A higher rating does not restore demand by itself. If the traffic and catalog push fail to show up in reported comps, the comeback thesis will not hold.
Arhaus is down 18.7% since the beginning of the year, and at $9.24 per share, it is trading 22.2% below its 52-week high of $11.87 from December 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Arhaus’s shares at the IPO in November 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $721.48.
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