What Happened?
A number of stocks fell in the afternoon session after April CPI hit 3.8% and Brent oil climbed to ~$107 confirming through the consumer data what manufacturers already reported through the ISM survey.
The ISM Prices Index reached 84.6% in April, a four-year high, with input costs running 25.6 percentage points higher over just three months. The ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 52.7%, fourth straight month of expansion, but 47% of manufacturer comments mentioned the Iran war and 18% mentioned tariffs as price drivers, with sentiment 69% negative.
Manufacturers use energy throughout production, powering equipment, running furnaces, fueling delivery fleets. When oil rises, costs also rise, compressing gross margins. Rising Treasury yields added a second pressure: capital spending, new equipment, factory expansion, is typically financed with long-term debt whose cost moves with the 10-year yield. The 4.43% level was the highest in months. The hot CPI print also makes it harder for manufacturers to pass costs to customers without triggering further consumer pullback.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
- HVAC and Water Systems company AAON (NASDAQ: AAON) fell 6.5%. Is now the time to buy AAON? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Aerospace company Redwire (NYSE: RDW) fell 6.2%. Is now the time to buy Redwire? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Ground Transportation company Hertz (NASDAQ: HTZ) fell 6.7%. Is now the time to buy Hertz? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Renewable Energy company Fluence Energy (NASDAQ: FLNC) fell 13%. Is now the time to buy Fluence Energy? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Air Freight and Logistics company Hub Group (NASDAQ: HUBG) fell 13.3%. Is now the time to buy Hub Group? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Zooming In On Hub Group (HUBG)
Hub Group’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 9 moves greater than 5% over the last year. Moves this big are rare for Hub Group and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 6 days ago when the stock gained 2.6% on the news that oil prices fell sharply, a direct and immediate input cost relief for manufacturers, as President Trump paused the Strait of Hormuz military escort and cited progress on a U.S.–Iran peace deal.
The underlying demand backdrop was also solid: the ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) held at 52.7% in April, the fourth straight month of expansion.
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures whether manufacturing activity is expanding or contracting: a reading above 50 means growth. The ISM prices component, separate from the headline PMI, measures what manufacturers are paying for inputs. At 84.6% in April, it was near its highest level in years, meaning manufacturers were under intense cost pressure. A fall in oil directly reduces one of the three key inputs driving that reading.
Hub Group is down 14.4% since the beginning of the year, and at $36.60 per share, it is trading 30.3% below its 52-week high of $52.53 from February 2026. Despite the year-to-date decline, investors who bought $1,000 worth of Hub Group’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,040.
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