
Masco’s 15.8% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 8.7%, and its stock price has climbed to $71.74 per share. This was partly thanks to its solid quarterly results, and the performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is there a buying opportunity in Masco, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.
Why Do We Think Masco Will Underperform?
We’re happy investors have made money, but we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than MAS and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Core Business Falling Behind as Demand Plateaus
We can better understand Home Construction Materials companies by analyzing their organic revenue. This metric gives visibility into Masco’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.
Over the last two years, Masco failed to grow its organic revenue. This performance was underwhelming and implies it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy. It also suggests Masco might have to lean into acquisitions to accelerate growth, which isn’t ideal because M&A can be expensive and risky (integrations often disrupt focus). 
2. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim
Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.
Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Masco’s revenue to rise by 1.6%. Although this projection indicates its newer products and services will fuel better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.
3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Over the last few years, Masco’s ROIC has unfortunately decreased significantly. We like what management has done in the past, but its declining returns are perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.

Final Judgment
Masco doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 16.6× forward P/E (or $71.74 per share). This valuation multiple is fair, but we don’t have much confidence in the company. There are superior stocks to buy right now. We’d recommend looking at an all-weather company that owns household favorite Taco Bell.
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