Saia’s 21.7% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 11.2%, and its stock price has climbed to $367.05 per share. This was partly thanks to its solid quarterly results, and the performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is now the time to buy Saia, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.

Why Is Saia Not Exciting?

We’re happy investors have made money, but we're swiping left on Saia for now. Here are three reasons you should be careful with SAIA and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Weak Sales Volumes Indicate Waning Demand

Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful Ground Transportation company because there’s a ceiling to what customers will pay.

Saia’s tons shipped came in at 1.58 million in the latest quarter, and over the last two years, averaged 6.8% year-on-year growth. This performance slightly lagged the sector and suggests it might have to lower prices or invest in product improvements to accelerate growth, factors that can hinder near-term profitability.

2. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping

If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.

As you can see below, Saia’s margin dropped by 7.6 percentage points over the last five years. It may have ticked higher more recently, but shareholders are likely hoping for its margin to at least revert to its historical level. Almost any movement in the wrong direction is undesirable because of its already low cash conversion. If the longer-term trend returns, it could signal it’s becoming a more capital-intensive business. Saia’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was breakeven.

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Over the last few years, Saia’s ROIC has unfortunately decreased significantly. We like what management has done in the past, but its declining returns are perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.

Final Judgment

Saia’s business quality ultimately falls short of our standards. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 35.6× forward P/E (or $367.05 per share). This multiple tells us a lot of good news is priced in - you can find more timely opportunities elsewhere. Let us point you toward one of our top digital advertising picks.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Saia

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Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.