What Happened?
A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after the Trump administration announced a new peace deal that would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The commercial aerospace story is distinct from the defense story here. Defense spending may moderate as the conflict resolves, but commercial aircraft orders respond to airline profitability. IATA had estimated the industry's 2026 fuel bill could exceed $350 billion, up from $252 billion the year before.
With oil falling more than 5%, that cost burden begins to lift and airline margins recover. More profitable airlines are more likely to advance orders and take deliveries on schedule. Gulf carriers operating routes through the now-reopening strait had been among the most disrupted; normalization of those corridors expands the commercial case for additional fleet capacity.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
- Aerospace company Woodward (NASDAQ: WWD) jumped 3%. Is now the time to buy Woodward? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Aerospace company AerSale (NASDAQ: ASLE) jumped 3.4%. Is now the time to buy AerSale? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Zooming In On AerSale (ASLE)
AerSale’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 8 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 27 days ago when the stock dropped 2.6% on the news that President Donald Trump said he called off what he described as a scheduled attack on Iran, citing "serious negotiations" underway toward a peace deal.
Defense names like RTX, Lockheed, Northrop, and General Dynamics tend to rally when geopolitical tensions escalate because investors anticipate larger weapons orders; when a strike gets called off, that same logic reverses, and traders take profits on the war premium.
Layered on top of this, rising long-end Treasury yields hurt capital-intensive industrials like Boeing because future cash flows from multi-decade aircraft order books get discounted more harshly. Combine "less war scare" with "more expensive money," and the sector lost two of the props that held it up all spring.
AerSale is down 10.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $6.46 per share, it is trading 28.3% below its 52-week high of $9 from August 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of AerSale’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at only $505.48.
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