McDonald's currently trades at $307.95 per share and has shown little upside over the past six months, posting a middling return of 1.3%. However, the stock is beating the S&P 500’s 4.8% decline during that period.
Is MCD a buy right now? Or is this an overvalued company? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.
Why Does McDonald's Spark Debate?
With nicknames spanning Mickey D's in the U.S. to Makku in Japan, McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) is a fast-food behemoth known for its convenience and broken ice cream machines.
Two Things to Like:
1. Restaurant Growth Signals an Offensive Strategy
A restaurant chain’s total number of dining locations often determines how much revenue it can generate.
McDonald's operated 45,356 locations in the latest quarter. It has opened new restaurants at a rapid clip over the last two years, averaging 4% annual growth, much faster than the broader restaurant sector. Additionally, one dynamic making expansion more seamless is the company’s franchise model, where franchisees are primarily responsible for opening new restaurants while McDonald's provides support.
When a chain opens new restaurants, it usually means it’s investing for growth because there’s healthy demand for its meals and there are markets where its concepts have few or no locations.
2. Excellent Free Cash Flow Margin Boosts Reinvestment Potential
Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.
McDonald's has shown terrific cash profitability, driven by its lucrative business model that enables it to reinvest, return capital to investors, and stay ahead of the competition. The company’s free cash flow margin was among the best in the restaurant sector, averaging 26.2% over the last two years.
One Reason to be Careful:
Same-Store Sales Falling Behind Peers
Same-store sales is a key performance indicator used to measure organic growth at restaurants open for at least a year.
McDonald’s demand within its existing dining locations has been relatively stable over the last two years but was below most restaurant chains. On average, the company’s same-store sales have grown by 1.5% per year.
Final Judgment
McDonald’s positive characteristics outweigh the negatives, and with its recent outperformance amid a softer market environment, the stock trades at 23.1× forward P/E (or $307.95 per share). Is now the time to initiate a position? See for yourself in our in-depth research report, it’s free.
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