US Annual Home Price Growth Slows to Half of Spring 2022 Peak in October, CoreLogic Reports

• Nationwide, home prices were up by 10.1% year over year in October, down from
  
  20.1% growth in April
• Home price acceleration is projected to decline steadily until next spring, when the market could post some annual losses

CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI^™) and HPI Forecast^™ for October 2022.

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Figure 1: HPI & HPI Forecast Percentage Change YOY (Graphic: Business Wire)

Year-over-year home price growth remained in double digits in October, at 10.1%, but continued to cool and was the lowest recorded since early 2021. Several factors are contributing to slowing appreciation: low inventory due to seller preferences to keep affordable mortgage rates that they have already locked in, homebuyer loss of purchase power and current economic uncertainty. Annual U.S. price growth is expected to taper off in the coming months, perhaps moving into negative territory by spring 2023, but then slowly ticking back into single digits as the year progresses.

“Following the recent mortgage rate surge above 7%, real estate activity and consumer sentiment regarding the housing market took a nosedive,” said Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “Home price growth continued to approach single digits in October, and it will move in that direction for the rest of the year and into 2023.”

“However,” Hepp continued, “while some housing markets have seen significant recalibration since the spring price peak and are likely to post losses in 2023, further deteriorating for-sale inventory, some relief in mortgage rate increases and relatively positive economic news may help eventually stabilize home prices.”

Top Takeaways:

• U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased 10.1% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.1% compared to September 2022.
• In October, annual appreciation of detached properties (10.1%) was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (9.8%).
• Annual U.S. home price gains are forecast to slow to 4.1% by October 2023.
• Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 20 largest metro areas in October, at 22.6%, while Tampa, Florida retained the No. 2 slot at 20%.
• Florida and South Carolina recorded the highest home price gains, 20.2% and 16.1%, respectively. Georgia and North Carolina tied for third, with 15.3% year-over-year increases. Washington, D.C. ranked last for appreciation at 0.2%.

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring November 2022 data, will be issued on January 3, 2023, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI^™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts^™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as “overvalued”, “at value”, or “undervalued.” These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10%, and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

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About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

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