Review of the gold market
Global financial markets have, since quarter end,
experienced unprecedented volatility and a flight to
cash by investors across the board. The nature of
the crisis and the extent of the associated
deleveraging have meant that, while there has been
some incremental buying of gold as a ‘safe haven’
asset, there has also been significant selling down,
particularly on the Comex and other exchanges.
Since quarter end, gold has fallen some 16% to
$729.60/oz.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been less
affected despite some selling, most notably in the
period from 17 to 23 October, when the US-traded
SPDR ETF saw 9.8t of redemptions, of which 8.58t
took place within a 24-hour period on
22/23
October. These redemptions however
represented only just over 1% of the total volume of
gold held in the fund, which stood at a record
770.64t on 13 October.
The events post quarter followed an already volatile
three months for gold prices, which saw a trading
range of over $250/oz, as the mood of the global
financial markets swung from concerns about
inflation to warnings of deflation and recession.
During the quarter the gold price traded from a high
of $988/oz to a low of $736/oz.
While gold traded to a high of $988/oz by mid-July
on fears of surging inflation and predictions that the
oil price could reach $200/barrel, subsequent fears
of a slowdown in global growth, particularly in the
European Community, coupled with a slowing of
growth in China, led to a sharp sell-off in the base
metals complex. This also led to a strengthening of
the US dollar as many of the commodity index
trades were unwound. This reversal in the fortunes
of the US dollar weighed significantly on the gold
price, which then traded to an 11 month low of
$736/oz.
This new-found strength and confidence in the US
dollar was, however, short lived as sub-prime
mortgage fears re-emerged. The news in early
September that two government-sponsored
enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were
technically insolvent, the issuing by the US Treasury
of financial guarantees to those institutions and the
prolonged period of uncertainty which followed
these events, caused investors to unwind positions
in all markets and return to cash. The gold market
was not immune to this and there was a significant
liquidation of positions from ETF holdings.
Despite the eventual approval by the US legislature
of the Troubled Assets Relief Programme, the
uncertainty and lack of confidence within financial
markets remains and problems in financial markets
are proving to be global. This has raised real fears
that the global economy will slide into deflation and
ultimately recession.
The average spot price for the quarter was $869/oz,
some 3% lower than the previous quarter’s average.
In Rand terms, the average gold price was
R216,674/kg, as compared with the previous
quarter’s average of R224,023/kg.
Investment Market
ETF holdings continued to grow during July,
peaking at 33Moz. However, the strengthening of
the US dollar eventually forced the withdrawal of
some of these investors and 3Moz of investments
were redeemed through to August 2008. Post
quarter end, this liquidation had all been recovered
and holdings of gold ETF’s had reached an all time
high of 35Moz.
Though still in their infancy, the newly-launched ETF
funds in India performed well and continued to
attract investment from retail investors.
Producer Hedging
During the quarter under review there was no new
producer hedging. Similarly there were no reports of
any significant producer de-hedging through
accelerated buybacks.
AngloGold Ashanti did continue its programme of
de-hedging by accelerating the delivery into
263,000oz of hedge contracts from periods beyond
the current quarter.
Physical Demand
In the volatile market situation of the third quarter,
the focus in the gold market was primarily on the
investment sector. This was reflected in the
physical market, where coin sales in particular
showed strong growth during the period and
jewellery demand presented a more mixed picture.
Jewellery Sector
The period of relatively stable and low prices during
the first two months of the quarter brought some
recovery in demand in the largest gold jewellery
market, India, particularly when viewed against the
backdrop of poor consumption in the first half of the
year. The recovery in demand experienced during
this period would have been stronger, had it not